adibamaisha/health-data-simulation

Exploring HIV trends in Kenya using a computer simulation. Models how the epidemic spreads over time and fits the model to real-world data. # HIV Prevalence Modeling in Kenya – MATLAB Capstone Project This repository contains the MATLAB code for a mathematical modeling project that simulates HIV prevalence in Kenya. The project uses a system of differential equations and optimization methods (fminsearch and GA) to fit the model to historical data. > **Disclaimer:** This project was initially developed in MATLAB and is **showcased here for reference only**. The code may not run outside MATLAB or without the appropriate toolboxes. This repository is intended for **demonstration and educational purposes**, not for execution. --- ## **Project Files and Descriptions** | File | Description | |------|-------------| | `model4_function.m` | Defines the main system of differential equations for the epidemic model. Calculates the dynamics of susceptible, infected, and other compartments. | | `model4_prevalence_only.m` | Solves the ODE system over time to simulate HIV prevalence based on model parameters. | | `cost_function0.m` | Implements the cost function used for parameter fitting with fminsearch and GA. Computes the error between simulated prevalence and real data. | | `main_model4_compare.m` | Main script that runs the model and fits parameters using `fminsearch`. Generates plots comparing simulated prevalence with observed data. | | `main_model4_compare_GA.m` | Main script that runs the model and fits parameters using Genetic Algorithm (GA). Generates plots comparing simulated prevalence with observed data. | | `gaEarlyStop.m` | Helper function used by the GA to implement early stopping criteria. | | `fminsearch_calibration.png` | Example output plot showing observed vs simulated HIV prevalence. | | `GA_calibration.png` | Example output plot showing observed vs simulated HIV prevalence. | --- ## **How to Use** - These files are provided **as-is for showcase purposes**. - You can browse the MATLAB code to understand the model structure, differential equations, and fitting methodology. - Plots and res …