Afomiat/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecaster

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia An interactive forecasting and event simulation platform that models and projects Ethiopia's digital financial services (DFS) transformation. Designed for central bank authorities (National Bank of Ethiopia), mobile wallet operators (telebirr, M-Pesa), and development finance institutions. --- ## 🏦 Business Problem Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid, policy-driven digital financial transformation. While administrative reports tout over 65 million mobile money wallet registrations, demand-side surveys reveal a persistent gap: only **9.45%** of adults actively possess and perceive mobile money as a primary account, and general digital payment usage stands at **35.0%**. Additionally, tracking progress is constrained by: 1. **Multi-Homing Constraint**: Product rollouts (like telebirr) primarily onboard already-banked individuals rather than reaching the unbanked. 2. **Registration vs. Active Usage Gap**: Most mobile money wallets are used passively for bank cash-outs rather than as digital circulation accounts. This platform addresses these risks by providing stakeholders with a transparent, data-driven forecasting and simulation tool to track Access (`ACC_OWNERSHIP`) and Usage (`USG_DIGITAL_PAYMENT`) while simulating policy and product shock pathways to 2027. --- ## 💡 Solution Overview The system implements a hybrid forecasting methodology: 1. **Organic Baseline Trends**: Fits an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) linear trend to historical World Bank Global Findex survey years (2011–2024). 2. **Event Shock Ramp Models**: Simulates discrete policy/product shocks (e.g., telebirr launch, Fayda biometric ID rollout, mobile lending licensing) using mathematical time-delayed linear ramp functions to reflect gradual customer acquisition. 3. **Interactive Simulation & Explainability**: A high-fidelity Streamlit dashboard allowing users to toggle future events in real-time. It displays a **dynamic Waterfall Decomposition** chart showi …