Afyana/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## Overview A forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods. Built for Selam Analytics to support stakeholders including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. ## Installation ```bash # Clone the repository git clone github.com cd ethiopia-fi-forecast # Install dependencies pip install -r requirements.txt # Run the dashboard streamlit run dashboard/app.py Project Structure data/: Raw and processed data notebooks/: Jupyter notebooks for analysis dashboard/: Streamlit dashboard application models/: Model documentation reports/: Generated figures and reports Features 📊 Historical Trends: Track financial inclusion indicators from 2011-2024 🔮 Forecasts: Predict account ownership and digital payment usage to 2027 📈 Event Analysis: Understand impact of policies and product launches 🎯 Target Tracking: Monitor progress toward NFIS-II goals Key Findings Account ownership grew from 14% (2011) to 49% (2024) Digital payment usage reached ~35% in 2024 Mobile money accounts grew to 9.45% in 2024 Event impacts (Telebirr, M-Pesa) correlate with inclusion acceleration Technologies Used Python 3.8+ Pandas, NumPy for data processing Matplotlib, Seaborn, Plotly for visualization Statsmodels, Scikit-learn for modeling Streamlit for dashboard