Airahb/surep-maternal-autonomy

Replication code for SUREP research paper on women's autonomy and maternal health outcomes using DHS survey data and regression discontinuity design — Nigeria # The Impact of Conditional Cash Transfers on Maternal Autonomy in Nigeria **Airah Balogun** · MS International and Development Economics · University of San Francisco · October 2025 --- ## Overview This paper evaluates the effect of Nigeria's **SURE-P MCH** (Subsidy Reinvestment & Empowerment Programme — Maternal and Child Health) conditional cash transfer program on women's household decision-making autonomy. Using a difference-in-differences design with three waves of DHS microdata, the study asks whether a major CCT program targeting maternal health improved women's autonomy in treated states relative to untreated states. --- ## Key Results | Specification | DiD coefficient | p-value | |--------------|----------------|---------| | Short-run (2008 → 2013) | −0.006 | 0.57 | | Long-run (2008 → 2018) | −0.007 | 0.48 | | National trend 2013 → 2018 | +0.029 | < 0.01 | The SURE-P program had **no statistically significant effect** on women's autonomy in treated states. The national improvement in autonomy between 2013 and 2018 reflects broader socioeconomic developments — rising female education and greater household participation — rather than the program's direct effects. --- ## Data and Methods - **Survey data**: Nigeria DHS Individual Recode (IR) files — 2008 (pre-program), 2013 (short-run post), 2018 (long-run post) - **Design**: Difference-in-differences (DiD) quasi-experiment - **Treatment**: SURE-P implementation states — Anambra, Bauchi, Kaduna, Niger, Ondo, Zamfara - **Outcome**: Women's autonomy index from three DHS items (healthcare decisions, large purchases, visits to relatives) - **Controls**: Age, education, household wealth, urban residence, regional fixed effects - **Estimation**: Weighted regressions using DHS sampling weights; standard errors clustered at state level --- ## Policy Implications 1. **Financial incentives alone are insufficient** to transform gender relations. The SURE-P cash transfer did not shift women's decision-making …