amubarke/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia-week-10

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting Project ## 📌 Project Overview This project develops a forecasting system to track Ethiopia's digital financial transformation. Using time series and event-driven analysis, the system predicts two core financial inclusion indicators: - **Access**: Account ownership rate among adults - **Usage**: Digital payment adoption rate The dataset includes observations, events, impact links, and targets, covering multiple years and financial inclusion indicators. The project follows a structured workflow from data exploration to forecasting and visualization. --- ## ✅ Tasks ### **Task 1: Data Exploration and Enrichment** **Objective:** Understand the dataset and enrich it with additional observations, events, and relationships to support forecasting. **Key Activities:** - Explore the unified dataset (`ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv`) and review the schema - Analyze records by `record_type`, `pillar`, and `source_type` - Identify temporal gaps and sparse indicators - Add new data points: - Observations relevant to Access and Usage - Events (policy, product launches, infrastructure) - Impact links connecting events to indicators - Document all additions in `data_enrichment_log.md` **Deliverables:** - Updated dataset and impact links - `data_enrichment_log.md` - Pull Request merging `task-1` branch into `main` --- ### **Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)** **Objective:** Analyze patterns and factors influencing financial inclusion in Ethiopia. **Key Activities:** - Dataset overview: - Summary by `record_type`, `pillar`, and `source_type` - Confidence levels and data quality assessment - Identification of sparse indicators - Access analysis: - Account ownership trends (2011–2024) - Growth rate calculation - Investigation of post-2021 slowdown - Usage analysis: - Mobile money and digital payment adoption trends - Registered vs. active usage gaps - Infrastructure & enablers: - Examine network coverage, ATM density, mobile penet …