Arin2910/Climate-Based-Poverty-Profile-of-Tanzania

Research project analysing how rainfall patterns influence household poverty and welfare outcomes across Tanzania using Household Budget Survey data. # Climate-Based Poverty Profile of Tanzania ## Overview This repository contains the final research project completed for the course **Poverty and Inequality (ECO392)** at **Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence**. The project examines how rainfall patterns and climate stability influence household poverty and welfare outcomes across Tanzania. Using nationally representative household survey data together with subnational rainfall data, the study investigates whether regions with higher agricultural productivity necessarily experience lower poverty and explores the role of climate stability, infrastructure, and market access in shaping welfare outcomes. ## Research Question How do rainfall patterns and climate stability influence household poverty and welfare outcomes across Tanzania? ## Dataset The analysis combines: - Tanzania Household Budget Survey (2017–18) - Subnational rainfall data - Rainy-season crop yield statistics The final dataset covers **8,757 households** across Tanzania. Households were classified into four climate regimes based on rainfall quantity and rainfall stability: - Wet + Stable - Wet + Unstable - Dry + Stable - Dry + Unstable ## Methodology Household welfare was measured using the OECD-modified adult-equivalence consumption scale to enable fair comparisons across households of different sizes and compositions. Poverty was analysed using the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) poverty indices to estimate: - Poverty Headcount Ratio - Poverty Gap - Poverty Severity The results were then compared across the four climate regimes and cross-referenced with regional crop yield data to examine whether higher agricultural productivity translated into lower poverty. ## Key Findings - Wet + Unstable regions recorded the highest poverty levels despite receiving relatively high rainfall. - Dry + Stable regions showed the strongest welfare outcomes despite comparatively lower agricultural yields. - Higher rainfall and higher crop yields did not n …