asiyasabiu25/nigeria-grid-intelligence

# 🔌 Nigerian Grid Intelligence Dashboard ### Demand Forecasting + Outage Pattern Analysis for Nigeria's Electricity Distribution Companies --- ## Overview Nigeria generates less than 40% of its estimated electricity demand — but the shortfall is not shared equally. This project explores **where the burden falls hardest** across Nigeria's 11 Distribution Companies (DisCos), combining historical demand analysis, machine learning forecasting, and outage pattern intelligence into a unified Power BI dashboard. Built as part of a portfolio project aligned with Nigeria's power sector analytics landscape, using publicly referenced frameworks from **NERC** and **NBS** energy statistics. --- ## The Problem | Metric | Reality | |--------|---------| | Estimated national demand | ~5,000 MW+ | | Average grid allocation | ~40–50% of demand | | Northern DisCo loss rates | Up to 50% (Yola) | | Collection efficiency (North) | As low as 38% | Northern distribution companies face a compounding crisis: infrastructure delivers less power, loses more of what it delivers, and collects payment for less of what is billed. This dashboard makes that visible. --- ## Project Structure ``` nigeria-grid-intelligence/ │ ├── data/ │ ├── demand_forecast.csv # Historical (2020–2024) + Forecast (2025–2026) │ └── outage_analysis.csv # 8,000+ simulated outage events (2020–2024) │ ├── generate_data.py # Python pipeline: simulation + forecasting ├── Nigerian_Grid_Dashboard.pbix # Power BI dashboard file └── README.md ``` --- ## Datasets ### 1. `demand_forecast.csv` — 924 rows Covers all 11 DisCos monthly from January 2020 to December 2026. | Column | Description | |--------|-------------| | `Date` | Month (YYYY-MM-01) | | `DisCo` | Distribution Company | | `Region` | Geopolitical zone | | `Period` | Historical or Forecast | | `Estimated_Demand_MWh` | What customers need | | `Allocated_MWh` | What the grid delivered | | `Supply_Gap_MWh` | Unmet demand | | `Suppl …