bethywa/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast

Forecasting Ethiopia’s financial inclusion (Access & Digital Payment Usage) using time-series analysis, event impact modeling, and interactive dashboards based on Global Findex and national data. # 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast **Evidence-based forecasting and interactive analytics for financial inclusion in Ethiopia** Built with **Python • Pandas • NumPy • Scikit-learn • Streamlit • Plotly** --- ## 🎯 Project Overview & Impact ### The Challenge Ethiopia is experiencing a critical disconnect between **financial service supply and demand**. Despite massive mobile money expansion: - **65+ million mobile money accounts registered since 2021** - **Only 49% of adults report having a financial account (2024)** - Growth slowed to **+3pp (2021–2024)** vs **+11pp (2017–2021)** This **73% deceleration** reveals a fundamental gap: > **Registered accounts ≠ active users** Policymakers, regulators, and operators need **evidence-based insights** to understand: - What actually drives financial inclusion - Which events matter most - What the future looks like under different scenarios --- ## 💡 The Solution This project delivers a **production-grade financial inclusion analytics and forecasting system** that: - 📊 Explores historical access and usage trends - 🔍 Quantifies the impact of major events (policies, launches, reforms) - 🔮 Forecasts financial inclusion outcomes for **2025–2027** - 🎯 Enables scenario planning for policy and investment decisions - 📈 Presents results through an **interactive Streamlit dashboard** --- ## ✨ Key Features ### 📈 Actionable Policy Insights Translate complex data into clear forecasts, tables, and visualizations that answer: - *What will happen?* - *What should we do next?* ### 🔍 Quantified Event Impact Measure how **specific events** (e.g., Telebirr launch, M-Pesa entry, FX reforms) affect: - Account ownership - Digital payment usage Delivered via **event–indicator association matrices** with signed impact magnitudes. ### 🔮 Evidence-Based Forecasting - Forecasts for **2025–2027** - **Base, optimistic, pessimistic scenarios** - Confidence intervals and uncertainty discussion - Sparse-data aware (only 5 Findex point …