beza1619/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast
Domain:
socioeconomicCreator:
bez
Host:
Forecasting system for Ethiopia's digital financial transformation
\# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia
\## 📊 Project Overview
A comprehensive forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods and event impact modeling. Developed by Selam Analytics for the National Bank of Ethiopia consortium.
\## 🎯 Business Context
Ethiopia is undergoing rapid digital financial transformation with Telebirr (54M+ users), M-Pesa entry (10M+ users), and P2P digital transfers surpassing ATM withdrawals. This system forecasts progress on World Bank Global Findex indicators.
\## 📈 Key Questions Addressed
1\. \*\*What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia?\*\*
2\. \*\*How do events affect inclusion outcomes?\*\*
3\. \*\*How will inclusion look in 2025-2027?\*\*
\## 🏗️ Project Structure
ethiopia-fi-forecast/
├── data/ # Raw and processed data
├── notebooks/ # Complete analysis (Tasks 1-4)
├── dashboard/ # Streamlit dashboard (Task 5)
├── reports/ # Reports and visualizations
├── src/ # Python source code
└── models/ # Model files
\## ✅ Tasks Completed
\### Task 1: Data Exploration and Enrichment
\- Cleaned and structured financial inclusion dataset
\- Added enriched data (gender, infrastructure, mobile penetration)
\- Created data enrichment log
\### Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis
\- Analyzed account ownership trends (2011-2024)
\- Examined mobile money and digital payments growth
\- Created event timeline analysis
\- Generated key insights and hypotheses
\### Task 3: Event Impact Modeling
\- Built event-indicator association matrix
\- Modeled impacts of Telebirr, M-Pesa, NFIS II, interoperability, 4G expansion
\- Tested and refined model against historical data
\### Task 4: Forecasting Access and Usage
\- Created baseline forecasts using historical trends
\- Incorporated event impacts
\- Developed three scenarios (optimistic, base, pessimistic)
\- Quantified uncertainty with confidence intervals
\### Task 5: Dashboard Development
\- B …