bezawit16-ke/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting (2025-2030) ## 📌 Project Overview This project aims to analyze and forecast financial inclusion trends in Ethiopia. Using a unified dataset (2011-2024), we identify growth drivers and provide data-driven projections to help reach the target of 70% financial inclusion by 2030. ## 🚀 Interim Status (Feb 1, 2026) Successfully completed **Task 1** and **Task 2** initialization. ### Key Achievements: - **Unified Data Pipeline**: Established a robust loading script to process the unified schema (Findex + GSMA data). - **Schema Verification**: Confirmed record types including `observations`, `events`, and `targets`. - **Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)**: Visualized the historic trajectory of account ownership in Ethiopia. ### 📊 Key Insight: The "3% Mystery" Our analysis confirms that while mobile money has expanded rapidly, overall account ownership grew by only **3 percentage points** (from 46% to 49%) between 2021 and 2024. This plateau suggests that current expansion strategies are reaching a saturation point among existing digital users, requiring new intervention strategies. ## 📂 Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .venv/ # Virtual environment ├── data/ │ └── raw/ │ └── data/ # Source Excel files ├── notebooks/ │ └── task1_check.ipynb # Main EDA and Data Loading notebook ├── data_enrichment_log.md # Documentation of added indicators ├── requirements.txt # Python dependencies └── README.md # Project documentation