Bil4Ben/africa-conflict-dynamics-1997-2026

Geospatial and temporal analysis of conflict fatalities and events across Africa (1997–2026) using ACLED data and NASA SRTM elevation data. ## Conflict Dynamics in Africa (1997–2026) ## Project Overview This project investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of conflict across Africa from 1997 to 2026. The analysis focuses on conflict events and fatalities, examining their distribution across time, geography, and elevation. The study integrates temporal trend analysis with geospatial methods to identify conflict hotspots and explore potential environmental influences on conflict patterns. The dataset has also been enriched with elevation data derived from NASA’s SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM), enabling analysis of terrain influences on conflict intensity. 1. **Temporal Trends of Conflict** ### Key Findings - Conflict fatalities peaked in 1999, reaching 159,821 deaths, the deadliest year in the dataset. - A period of relative decline occurred between 2000 and 2006, with significantly lower fatality levels. - From 2014 onward, fatalities increased steadily, reaching 78,814 deaths in 2025, the highest sustained level since the late 1990s. - Conflict events show a continuous upward trend, increasing from fewer than 5,000 annual events in the early period to 55,868 events in 2025. - The simultaneous rise in both events and fatalities after 2010 suggests increasingly widespread and persistent conflict activity. ### Major Conflict Phases 1. High-Intensity Phase (1997–1999): Extremely high fatalities and peak violence 2. Decline Phase (2000–2006): Reduced fatalities and moderate activity 3. Expansion Phase (2007–2013): Gradual increase in conflict events 4. Escalation Phase (2014–2025): Sustained growth in both fatalities and events 2. **Spatial Distribution of Conflict Fatalities** Conflict fatalities are highly unevenly distributed across Africa, with a small number of countries accounting for a large proportion of total deaths. ### Key Findings - Major conflict hotspots include: - Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea, Sudan, Nigeria, South Sudan, Libya - Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Burkina Faso - …