Biruk-gebru/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting A data-driven project to analyze historical trends, model policy impacts, and forecast the future of financial inclusion in Ethiopia. This repository contains the end-to-end pipeline from data enrichment to an interactive dashboard. ## 📌 Project Overview Financial inclusion is a key driver of economic development. This project aims to impact decision-making by providing: 1. **Unified Data**: Consolidating fragmentation data from World Bank Findex, NBE, and other sources. 2. **Impact Analysis**: Quantifying how specific events (e.g., "Launch of Telebirr", "National ID proclamation") correlate with inclusion metrics. 3. **Forecasting**: projecting future adoption rates under various policy scenarios. ## 🚀 Key Results & Insights Based on our modeling up to **Task 5**: * **Account Ownership Growth**: Historical data shows a steady rise from **22% (2014)** to **49% (2024)**. * **Future Projections**: Under our baseline scenario, account ownership is projected to reach approximately **~60-65% by 2029**. * **Scenario Impact**: * **Optimistic Growth**: Aggressive policy implementation could accelerate inclusion by an additional **15%**. * **Pessimistic Growth**: Stagnation or global shocks could dampen growth to **~55%**. * **Mobile Money Revolution**: The sharpest growth curves are observed in `ACC_MM_ACCOUNT` (Mobile Money), driven by recent liberalization and infrastructure projects. ## 📂 Project Workflow (The "Why" & "How") The project is structured into 5 sequential tasks, each building on the last. ### Task 1: Data Exploration & Enrichment * **Goal**: Create a reliable source of truth. * **Process**: We merged `ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv` with additional event data and checked for temporal consistency. * **Outcome**: A clean, unified dataset ready for time-series analysis. ### Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) * **Goal**: Understand the historical landscape. * **Process**: We visualiz …