BiyiO/Nigeria-Rainfall-vs-Flood-1990_2026

# Multi-Decadal Attribution of Flood Hazards in Nigeria (1990–2026) ### Fluvial Dam Releases vs. Pluvial Cloudbursts Under Clausius-Clapeyron Thermodynamic Disruption Flood.ipynb) --- ## 📌 Executive Overview This repository contains the complete empirical data, machine learning attribution models, GIS spatial workflows, systematic literature review, and peer-reviewed manuscript investigating **36 years (1990–2026)** of hydro-climatological and disaster data across all **36 Nigerian States + FCT (16,428 monthly observations)**. ### The Core Research Problem: > **Did upstream dam water releases (Lagdo Dam in Cameroon & Kainji/Jebba on River Niger) cause more catastrophic flooding than extreme local precipitation, or did extreme precipitation dominate? How does thermodynamic warming transform this dynamic, and what spatial planning/engineering solutions resolve both hazards?** ``` ┌────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ NIGERIA FLOOD TAXONOMY │ └───────────────────┬────────────────────┘ │ ┌─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┐ ▼ ▼ ┌───────────────────────────────────────┐ ┌───────────────────────────────────────┐ │ FLUVIAL / RIVERINE DAM FLOOD │ │ PLUVIAL / URBAN FLASH FLOOD │ ├───────────────────────────────────────┤ ├───────────────────────────────────────┤ │ • Driver: Dam Water Releases + Basin │ │ • Driver: Extreme Cloudburst Downpour │ │ Discharge (Lagdo / Kainji / Jebba) │ │ exceeding local drainage capacity │ │ • Key States: Kogi, Bayelsa, Anambra, │ │ • Key States: Lagos (VI, Lekki), Kano,│ │ Benue, Delta, Adamawa, Taraba │ │ Ondo, Port Harcourt, Ibadan │ │ • High Farmland & Human Displacement │ │ • High Economic & Infrastructure Loss │ │ • Correlation: r = +0.761 (Dam Driven)│ │ • Correlation: r = +0.811 (Rain Driven│ │ • 58.4% of National Displacement │ │ • 65%+ of Urban Economic …