blen1717/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## 📋 Project Overview Forecasting Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using time series methods for 2025-2027. ## 📊 Schema Documentation | record_type | Description | |-------------|-------------| | observation | Actual measured values from surveys, reports, operators | | event | Policy changes, product launches, milestones | | impact_link | Relationship between events and indicators | | target | Official policy goals | | Field | Description | Applies To | |-------|-------------|------------| | record_id | Unique identifier | All | | record_type | Type of record | All | | category | Event classification | Event only | | pillar | Dimension being measured | Observation, Target | | indicator_code | Standardized indicator code | Observation, Impact Link | | parent_id | Links impact to parent event | Impact Link only | | impact_direction | Increase/Decrease | Impact Link only | | lag_months | Delay before effect manifests | Impact Link only | ## 🚀 How to Run `bash pip install -r src/requirements.txt streamlit run dashboard/app.py pytest src/tests/ -v Key Insights 1. Access growth slowed (46% → 49%, +3pp, 2021-2024) 2. P2P surpassed ATM (P2P/ATM = 1.08) 3. 4G coverage doubled (37.5% → 70.8%) 4. Gender gap persists at 18pp 5. M-Pesa only 66% active 📊 Forecast Results (2025-2027) |Scenario |2025 |2026 |2027| |---------|-----|-----|----| |Baseline| 59.1% |61.0%| 62.9%| |With Events| 60.5%|61.9%| 62.9%| |Optimistic |61.0% |62.5% |62.9%| |Pessimistic |59.8% |61.3%| 62.9%| 📚 References · Global Findex Database: worldbank.org · National Bank of Ethiopia: nbe.gov.et · EthSwitch: ethswitch.com Submitted: July 21, 2026