BoldwinMax/Zambia-Tax-Revenue-Concentration-Analysis-2018-2023

Power BI analytical report examining who actually carries Zambia's tax revenue — by taxpayer size, sector, income, and trade. Six independent measures land between 36% and 93% concentration, raising questions about the base ZRA is expected to fund 80% of the national budget on by 2028. # Zambia Tax Revenue Concentration Analysis, 2018–2023 **ZRA is expected to fund up to 80% of the national budget by 2028. This report asks who is actually funding ZRA right now.** Six independent ways of cutting the same tax data - by taxpayer size, sector, ownership, income band, and trade - all land in the same 36–93% concentration range. Revenue grew, but the base carrying it never broadened. 🔗 **Live interactive report:** app.powerbi.com --- ## Report structure 1. **The Fact** - revenue doubled, but ZRA missed its own target in 3 of the last 4 years 2. **Who Pays** - 79% of domestic tax from Large taxpayers alone; 92% from private businesses 3. **The Sector Story** - mining's tax contribution swung from 40% to a 51% peak and back to 37% 4. **The Incentive Tension** - mining received 90% of every incentive approved, 2018–2023 5. **The Wage Base** - 24% of employees earned 93% of taxed wages 6. **Trade & Customs** - a K207 billion swing from deficit to surplus, concentrated in one sector and one border post 7. **The Verdict** - all seven threads brought together against the 80%-by-2028 target ## Preview ## Key findings - Tax revenue grew 108% - from K48.2 billion to K100.1 billion (2018–2023) - 79% of domestic tax revenue in 2023 came from Large taxpayers alone - Mining's tax contribution swung from 40% to a 51% peak (2021) and back to 37% (2023), while receiving 90% of every incentive approved throughout - 8 cents back for every kwacha paid in tax in 2023 - 24% of employees sit in the top PAYE band, yet earned 93% of all taxed wages in 2023 - Trade flipped from a K6.9 billion deficit (2018) to a K206.9 billion surplus (2023) - 36.1% of exports leave through a single border post, and five countries buy 77.1% of everything exported ## Data verification Every figure in this report is drawn directly from ZRA's own pub …