brill06/Kenya-Fiscal-Landscape-Analysis

# Kenya Public Debt & Economic Sustainability Analysis(2000-2021) ## Project Overview This project provides a data driven evaluation of Kenya's Fiscal Trajectory over the last 25 years. By intergrating datasets on Public Debt stock, Interest Payments and Annual GDP the analysis quantifies the actual cost of sovereign borrowing and its relationship to economic growth The primary goal is to determine the "Effective Interest Rate" of domestic versus foreign debt and assess Kenya's debt Sustainability against regional benchmarks like the East African Community (EAC) 60% Debt-to-GDP threshold ## Why This Analysis Matters Public debt composition and servicing costs play a critical role in fiscal stability. Understanding whether economic growth sufficiently supports rising debt obligations helps inform policy decisions, investor confidence, and long-term macroeconomic planning. ## Key Insights 1. Rising Servicing Costs: Interest Payments Acceleration and high cost of domestic debt servicing. 2. Sustainability Benchmarking: Tracking the Debt to GDP ratio from 2000 to 2021 ## Methodology Overview - Aggregated monthly debt and interest payment data to annual levels for consistency with GDP figures - Computed Effective Interest Rates as interest paid divided by outstanding debt stock - Benchmarked Debt-to-GDP ratios against regional sustainability thresholds - Applied time-series analysis to identify long-term trends and structural shifts ## Tech Stack Python Libraries: Pandas for Data Cleaning Matplotlib & Seaborn for Time-series visualization and trend analysis ## Data Sources 1. Public Debt (Ksh Million): Monthly historical data on domestic and external debt stocks 2. Interest Payments: Monthly breakdown of interest paid on domestic and foreign obligations 3. Annual GDP: Yearly figures for Nominal GDP, Real GDP and GDP Growth rates. ## Feature Engineering To move beyond raw data the following metrics were engineered: 1. Effective Interest Rate 2. Debt_to_GDP Ratio …