c2-d2/Cholera-Mozambique

Modeling Cholera Risk for the Aftermath of Cyclone Kenneth and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique # Modeling Cholera Risk for the Aftermath of Cyclone Kenneth and Cyclone Idai in Mozambique We modeled cholera outbreak risk based on four measures: 1. Gravity model simulating human mobility 2. Previous cholera incidence 3. Flooding risk index (based on measured flooding from Cyclone Idai and projected flooding for Cyclone Kenneth) 4. El Niño sensitivity **Flood risk index** Cyclone Idai: The flooding index is based on the flood extent maps from here. This index is based on the proportion of area within each district that was affected by flooding following Cyclone Idai. Cyclone Kenneth: We assumed Tropical Cyclone Kenneth would follow the trajectory described here. and affect mainly the Cabo Delgado province. We assumed the impact would be highest in the districts closest to the storm trajectory (provided by NetHope on April 25th), with less impact in the districts further away (risk decays with distance). Only districts within the uncertainty zone were considered at risk. **Previous Cholera Incidence** This risk index is based on modeled annual cholera incidence, based on previous cholera outbreak data and ecological data, from Lessler et al.33050-7/) **El Niño sensitivity** This risk index is based on comparisons of cholera incidence between El Niño and non El Niño years, from Moore et al. We only display sensitivity for districts that have higher incidence in El Niño years. **Gravity model** the gravity (diffusion) model, we assume that travel from Beira occurs based on the population size of Beira, the population size of the receiving district and the geodesic distance between Beira and the receiving district. Formula: (√population*√(origin_population))/distance (Similar results obtained using different exponents). The gravity model simulates human movement, in the absence of detailed mobility data, and has been used previously in epidemiological models (for example, in Xia et al.).High resolution population data comes from Facebook. We …