CaptainByakuya/nigeria-insecurity-analysis

A comprehensive data science analysis of Nigerian insecurity using 30 years of conflict data from ACLED and UCDP. Includes EDA, Random Forest predictive model (R²=0.86), and Power BI dashboard forecasting violence through 2030. # Nigerian Insecurity Analysis (1997-2026) ## Project Overview A comprehensive data science analysis of Nigerian insecurity using 30 years of conflict data. The project explores trends, hotspots, actors, and forecasts future violence to answer the question: "Will Nigerian insecurity ever be solved?" ## Research Questions 1. How has Nigerian insecurity changed over time (1997-2026)? 2. Which states are most affected by political violence? 3. What types of conflict are driving insecurity? 4. Who are the deadliest conflict actors? 5. Where are civilians most at risk? 6. Will Nigerian insecurity ever be solved? ## Data Sources All data sourced from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) — data.humdata.org | Dataset | Source | Coverage | |---|---|---| | Political Violence Events & Fatalities | ACLED | 1997-2026 | | Civilian Targeting Events & Fatalities | ACLED | 1997-2026 | | Conflict Data Nigeria | UCDP | 1990-2024 | Multiple datasets were used intentionally to cross-validate findings and explore correlations between political violence, civilian targeting, and organized armed conflict. ## Tools Used - Python (Pandas, Matplotlib, Seaborn, Scikit-learn) - Jupyter Notebook - Power BI Desktop ## Key Findings ### 1. Violence is escalating - 142,158 total political violence fatalities (1997-2026) - 2025 recorded the highest ever — 12,885 fatalities - Violence has increased 6x since 2009 ### 2. Borno dominates overall violence - 48,400 fatalities — nearly 34% of all deaths in one state - Driven by Boko Haram (JAS) and ISWAP insurgency ### 3. Three simultaneous crises - State-Based Conflict (military vs armed groups) — 27,770 deaths - Non-State Conflict (armed groups vs communities) — 27,802 deaths - One-Sided Violence (civilian massacres) — 18,250 deaths ### 4. Boko Haram is the deadliest actor - JAS (Boko Haram) — 14,653 deaths - ISWAP — 14,042 deaths - Combined — 39% of all UCDP recorded deaths ### 5. Kano has highest civilian targeting ratio - 78.61% of all viole …