DE143/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System A comprehensive system for forecasting financial inclusion in Ethiopia using time series methods and event impact modeling. ## Project Overview This project builds a forecasting system to track Ethiopia's digital financial transformation, answering key questions from stakeholders including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. ### Key Questions Addressed 1. **What drives financial inclusion in Ethiopia?** 2. **How do events affect inclusion outcomes?** 3. **How will inclusion look in 2025-2027?** ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ # Data files │ ├── raw/ # Raw input data │ ├── processed/ # Processed data │ └── enrichment_logs/ # Data enrichment logs ├── notebooks/ # Jupyter notebooks for each task ├── src/ # Source code modules ├── dashboard/ # Streamlit dashboard ├── models/ # Trained models and results ├── reports/ # Reports and figures ├── tests/ # Unit tests └── requirements.txt # Python dependencies ``` ## Installation 1. Clone the repository: ```git clone github.com cd ethiopia-fi-forecast ``` 2. Create a virtual environment (optional but recommended): ```python -m venv venv``` ```source venv/bin/activate # On Windows: venv\Scripts\activate``` 4. Install dependencies: ```pip install -r requirements.txt``` ## Running the Project Task 1: Data Exploration and Enrichment ```jupyter notebook notebooks/01_data_exploration.ipynb``` Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis ```jupyter notebook notebooks/02_eda_analysis.ipynb``` Task 3: Event Impact Modeling ```jupyter notebook notebooks/03_event_impact_modeling.ipynb``` Task 4: Forecasting ```jupyter notebook notebooks/04_forecasting.ipynb``` Task 5: Dashboard ```streamlit run dashboard/app.py``` Data Sources Global Findex Database: Account ownership and usage data National Bank of Ethiopia: Financial access survey data GSMA: Mobile money stat …