dhruvisinghvashishta/zambia-grid-defection-model

Python code supporting the household grid-defection, utility-revenue, electricity-reallocation, Kiyona retention, and solar-diffusion analyses for Zambia. # Zambia Grid Defection and Utility Revenue Model This repository contains the computational code supporting the manuscript: **The Quiet Unplugging: Modelling Household Grid Defection and Utility Revenue Risk in Zambia** The analysis examines how household adoption of rooftop solar photovoltaic systems and battery storage could affect residential electricity demand, utility revenue, electricity-system planning, and network cost recovery in Zambia. The model evaluates unmanaged household grid defection, the reallocation of released residential electricity to alternative buyers, and a utility-linked distributed-solar retention pathway through Kiyona Energy. --- ## Overview Electric utilities traditionally recover a substantial share of their fixed and operating costs through volumetric electricity sales. This model examines how that arrangement may be affected when high-consumption households begin substituting grid electricity with behind-the-meter solar generation and battery storage. The analysis focuses on Zambia, where hydropower dependence, drought-related electricity shortages, prolonged load-shedding, emergency tariffs, and falling distributed-solar costs create strong incentives for higher-use households to reduce their reliance on the national grid. The model links: 1. a nationally harmonised residential electricity-demand baseline; 2. household grid-defection scenarios; 3. normal and emergency residential tariff schedules; 4. alternative electricity sales to mines and the Southern African Power Pool; 5. utility-led rooftop solar deployment through Kiyona Energy; and 6. diffusion pathways describing how household adoption may develop over time. The framework is designed for scenario analysis. It does not forecast the exact number of households that will adopt solar and storage. Instead, it estimates the scale and direction of potential demand and revenue effects under clearly defined assumptions. --- ## Research questions The computational anal …