Divine-hub-data/regional-under5-mortality-nigeria

A regional analysis of under-five mortality in Nigeria (2013–2021) examining structural demographic factors versus health policy indicators using regression modelling. # Demographic Structure or Health Policy? ## Explaining Regional Under-Five Mortality in Nigeria (2013–2021) ## Overview This project examines regional disparities in under-five mortality (U5MR) across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones between 2013 and 2021. The analysis uses summary indicators compiled from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS 2013, 2018) and the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS 2021). The central question guiding this analysis is: > Are regional mortality differences more strongly associated with health service coverage or with broader structural demographic conditions? --- ## Dataset The dataset is a regional panel structure: - 6 geopolitical zones - 3 survey years (2013, 2018, 2021) - 18 total observations ### Dependent Variable - **Under-Five Mortality Rate (U5MR)** – deaths per 1,000 live births ### Independent Variables - Immunisation Coverage (%) - Skilled Birth Attendance (%) - Antenatal Care by Skilled Provider (%) - Total Fertility Rate (TFR) - Percentage of Population in Lowest Wealth Quintile Female secondary education was excluded due to systematic missingness in 2021. --- ## Analytical Approach The analysis follows a structured progression: 1. Data inspection and descriptive analysis 2. Visual exploration of regional patterns 3. Correlation analysis 4. Multicollinearity assessment 5. Competing regression models: - Structural model (Fertility & Poverty) - Health policy model (Immunisation) - Combined model (Fertility + Immunisation) Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was used due to the continuous nature of the dependent variable. --- ## Key Findings - Under-five mortality remains significantly higher in northern regions. - Fertility rate shows the strongest association with mortality. - Immunisation coverage is significantly associated with mortality when tested alone. - When fertility and immunisation are included together, fertility remains significant while immunisation loses independent significanc …