Elsh41/Ethiopia-Financial-Forecasting

# 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting & Impact Analysis (2011–2027) An end-to-end analytical pipeline, event-impact modeling engine, and interactive dashboard designed to evaluate, quantify, and forecast financial inclusion trajectories in Ethiopia. This repository leverages historical World Bank Global Findex survey data, National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) regulatory reports, and key industry milestones (e.g., Telebirr, Safaricom M-Pesa) to model financial inclusion dynamics and project 2025–2027 outcomes against national targets. --- ## 📌 Project Overview & Key Tasks ### Task 1: Data Exploration & Schema Enrichment * **Objective:** Ingest, standardize, and enrich unified financial inclusion data across observations, macroeconomic events, and impact linkages. * **Deliverables:** * Cleaned and normalized dataset: `data/processed/ethiopia_fi_enriched_data.csv` * Complete audit trail: `docs/data_enrichment_log.md` ### Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) * **Objective:** Uncover structural growth patterns, gender adoption gaps, and post-2021 adoption momentum. * **Deliverables:** * Visual metrics exported to `reports/figures/` (`temporal_coverage.png`, `account_trajectory.png`). * EDA analysis script: `notebooks/02_exploratory_data_analysis.py`. ### Task 3: Event Impact Modeling * **Objective:** Quantify the structural shock of policy reforms, commercial fintech launches, and infrastructure investments on core financial indicators. * **Deliverables:** * **Event-Indicator Association Matrix** capturing directional percentage-point impacts. * Historical validation against actual Telebirr launch metrics (2021–2024: 4.7% → 9.45% mobile money penetration). * Impact utilities: `src/impact_utils.py` & execution script `notebooks/03_event_impact_modeling.py`. * Methodology & assumptions documentation: `docs/event_impact_methodology.md`. ### Task 4: Forecasting Access and Usage (2025–2027) * **Objective:** Project Account Ownership (Access) and Digital Payment …