eosafu/FatalityModelNigeria

Mapping the spatial and temporal patterns of violence-related fatalities in Nigeria: a Bayesian modeling perspective # Mapping the spatial and temporal patterns of violence-related fatalities in Nigeria: a Bayesian modeling perspective Fatality resulting from violent events is a severe public health problem in Nigeria. According to the Global Organized Crime and Terrorism Indices, Nigeria is ranked among the top 20 countries in the world with the highest volume of violent crimes and the sixth most impacted region by terrorism in 2020. Despite the numerous existing studies on crimes in Nigeria, little or no attention has been given to fatalities due to violence. This work aims to unveil the subtle spatio-temporal pattern of fatalities resulting from violent events in Nigeria over a quarter-century. A spatio-temporal mixed model within a Bayesian framework was adopted, and data was sourced from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The study found existing temperate seasonality in the pattern of fatality, with a high fatality impact in Autumn and Winter. Among all the events, sexual violence was the leading cause of fatality in the country. Findings identified spatial and temporal disparities in fatality, with the North-East geopolitical zone being the most exposed region over the years. The identified factors and patterns could be relevant for designing sustainable intervention programs or response policies to mitigate violent events in Nigeria. The published paper can be found at nature.com.