EricNjiraini/kenya-clean-cooking-gap

# 🔥 # Kenya Clean Cooking Access Gap Analysis | DHS 2022 Geospatial Market Intelligence ### A County-Level Geospatial Market Opportunity Study ## 🎯 Problem Statement Kenya’s clean cooking transition is not constrained by national infrastructure — it is constrained by **uneven spatial adoption patterns across counties**. Despite rising electricity access (77%), only ~31% of households use clean cooking fuels, creating a structural market inefficiency. This project answers one question: > Where should governments, investors, and energy companies prioritize intervention to maximize clean cooking adoption impact per unit of capital deployed? --- ## 📌 Strategic Recommendations ### 1. Market Prioritisation Strategy Focus LPG expansion in high-deficit, high-population counties: - Kakamega - Bungoma - Meru - Nakuru - Kilifi ### 2. E-Cooking Market Development Target 10 identified counties with high electricity penetration but low LPG usage for pilot induction programs. ### 3. Segmented Intervention Strategy - Low-income rural counties → subsidised LPG rollout - Mid-income transition counties → hybrid LPG + electric cooking programs - Urban counties → appliance-driven adoption strategy ### 4. Investment Logic Shift from national averages to **county-level ROI targeting using deficit-weighted demand** ## 📈 Exploratory Data Analysis Findings - Urbanisation vs access correlation: **-0.379** - 10 counties identified as **e-cooking opportunity markets** - Strong negative relationship between female-headed households and access (r = -0.379) - Wealth shows non-linear adoption pattern (threshold effect observed) --- ## 📊 Impact Potential If interventions are targeted using this framework: - Capital efficiency improves by prioritising high-deficit counties - Carbon project additionality increases through precise targeting - Distribution costs reduce via cluster-based rollout strategy - Adoption rates improve through segmentation-based interventions ## 📌 Execu …