ermine12/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System A time series forecasting system that tracks Ethiopia's digital financial transformation using the World Bank's Global Findex framework. ## Overview This project builds a forecasting system to predict Ethiopia's progress on two core dimensions of financial inclusion: - **Access**: Account Ownership Rate - **Usage**: Digital Payment Adoption Rate The system analyzes how events like product launches, policy changes, and infrastructure investments affect inclusion outcomes, and forecasts financial inclusion rates for 2025-2027. ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ # CI/CD workflows │ └── unittests.yml ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter datasets │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx │ │ ├── reference_codes.xlsx │ │ └── Additional Data Points Guide.xlsx │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready data ├── notebooks/ # Jupyter notebooks for exploration and analysis ├── src/ # Source code modules ├── dashboard/ # Interactive dashboard │ └── app.py ├── tests/ # Unit tests ├── models/ # Saved models ├── reports/ # Reports and documentation │ └── figures/ # Visualizations ├── requirements.txt # Python dependencies ├── README.md └── .gitignore ``` ## Data The project uses a unified data schema with four record types: - **observation**: Measured values from surveys, reports, operators (30 records) - **event**: Policies, product launches, market entries, milestones (10 records) - **impact_link**: Modeled relationships between events and indicators (14 records) - **target**: Official policy goals (3 records) Key datasets: - `ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx` - Main dataset with unified schema - `reference_codes.xlsx` - Valid values for categorical fields - `Additional Data Points Guide.xlsx` - Enrichment guidance ## Installation ```bash # Clone …