estif0/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting **Client**: Selam Analytics **Project Type**: Time Series Forecasting & Impact Modeling **Timeline**: January 30 - February 9, 2026 ## Project Overview This project develops a forecasting system to track Ethiopia's digital financial transformation. We predict key financial inclusion indicators (Account Ownership and Digital Payment Usage) for 2025-2027, incorporating the impact of major policy changes and product launches. ### Key Objectives 1. **Forecast Account Ownership Rate** (Access) for 2025-2027 2. **Forecast Digital Payment Usage** for 2025-2027 3. **Model event impacts** (policies, product launches) on financial inclusion indicators 4. **Build interactive dashboard** for stakeholder exploration of scenarios ### Target Audience - Development finance institutions - Mobile money operators - National Bank of Ethiopia - Policy makers and development partners --- ## Project Status | Task | Status | Description | | ---------- | ---------- | ----------------------------------- | | **Task 1** | ✅ Complete | Data exploration & enrichment | | **Task 2** | ✅ Complete | Exploratory data analysis | | **Task 3** | ✅ Complete | Event impact modeling | | **Task 4** | ✅ Complete | Time series forecasting (2025-2027) | | **Task 5** | ✅ Complete | Interactive Streamlit dashboard | **Interim Submission**: ✅ Completed February 1, 2026 (Tasks 1 & 2) **Final Submission**: February 9, 2026 **Current Status**: All tasks complete, ready for final submission --- ## Key Findings (Task 2 EDA) ### 1. The 2021-2024 Slowdown Paradox **Finding**: Despite 65M+ mobile money accounts opened (including Telebirr launch in May 2021), account ownership grew by only 7.2 percentage points (28.9% → 36.1%). **Implications**: - Multiple accounts per person (low unique penetration) - High inactive/dormant account rate - Registered ≠ Active users (only 66% active rate) ### 2. Dat …