fergal-turner/2025_SCUK_SLEIC_Results

Background analysis for an SCUK published blog which provides a summary of key results from the final evaluation of the Sierra Leone Education Innovation Challenge # SLEIC 2025 - Save the Children Results Analysis This repository contains analysis and visualisations for the 2025 SLEIC project results. The analysis is high level presentation of learning results to support a short summary blog, published by Save the Children UK on the 17th December 2025. ## Overview This analysis evaluates the impact of educational interventions on numeracy and literacy outcomes across multiple schools and providers using mixed-effects statistical models and time-series visualisations. ## Repository Structure ``` 2025 Results Blog/ ├── Code/ │ ├── Years of Schooling Equivalence Calculation.ipynb # Analysis of Grade Effect on Numeracy │ └── Summary Figures.ipynb # Learning outcomes visualisations ├── Data/ │ ├── aser_baseline_clean.csv # Numeracy assessment data │ └── Learning Outcomes Summary.csv # Learning gains & mean scores for all providers and years (incomplete data) └── Results/ └── [Generated figures and visualisations] ``` ## Analysis Files ### 1. Years of Schooling Equivalence Calculation.ipynb **Purpose:** Analyzes the relationship between grade level and numeracy achievement using mixed-effects modeling. **Key Methods:** - Mixed-effects regression with random intercepts and random slopes for grade effects - Z-score standardization of numeracy outcomes - Specification tests for linearity assumptions - School-level clustering analysis **Key Findings:** - **Grade Effect:** Each additional grade level is associated with a **0.347 SD increase** in numeracy scores (95% CI: 0.303–0.390, p<0.001) - **Substantial School Clustering:** 43% of variance in numeracy scores is attributable to school effects (ICC = 0.433) - **Individual-Level Variation:** 55% of variance is individual-level, while 2% reflects school-specific grade trajectories - **Linearity:** Grade effects are approximately linear across grade transitions (SD …