FeyisetanKM/Water-accessibility-in-sub-Sahara-Africa

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environment and energy

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Fey

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# Water-accessibility-in-sub-Sahara-Africa Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is of the utmost importance, not only for policymakers but also for the countless people worldwide who stand to benefit from these goals. Despite global advancements in recent years, a substantial portion of the population remains without access to drinkable water, with sub-Sahara Africa bearing the brunt having a mere coverage of 31% of the entire region. This project, therefore, delves into forecasting coverage of selected countries in 2030 utilising three forecasting techniques: Holt Winters Exponential Smoothing, Auto ARIMA and the conventional ARIMA. Secondary data was obtained from World Health Organization and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (WHO/UNICEF) Joint Monitoring Programme (JMP) on Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) database for sub-Sahara Africa. Six countries, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Democratic of Congo, Uganda, Lesotho, and Nigeria were chosen based on their rate of progress towards SDG 6.1. Based on the employed models, the results showed that none of these countries was on course to achieve universal potable by 2030. The research showed that auto ARIMA performed better than ARIMA and Holt Winter in terms of exhibiting the lowest Akaike Information Criterion score of -223.38. The study further revealed that by year 2030, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Democratic of Congo, Uganda, Lesotho, and Nigeria will achieve a best coverage of 25.83%, 6.25%, 10.11%, 26.11%, 37.11% and 32.52% respectively. The findings of this study indicate that achieving universal potable water access by 2030 in sub-Saharan Africa is a significant challenge. While auto ARIMA appears to be the most effective forecasting method, the predicted coverage rates are low, and this indicate that urgent action is required to accelerate progress towards SDG 6.1. Policymakers, local and international agencies should make more investments in water supply …

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