Galiishaq/telecom-revenue-forecasting
Domain:
socioeconomicRecord type:
model
Creator:
Gal
Host:
12-month revenue forecasting model for Ghana's telecom market with churn scenario analysis
# Telecom Revenue Forecasting: Ghana Market Analysis
**A financial forecasting model for telecom subscriber revenue with scenario analysis**
A 12-month revenue forecasting model for Ghana's telecom market with churn scenario analysis.
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## Business Problem
Telecom operators need to forecast revenue under different churn scenarios to inform strategic planning and retention investments. This project builds a 12-month revenue forecasting model to:
1. **Quantify revenue at risk** from customer churn
2. **Model financial impact** of retention initiatives
3. **Support strategic planning** with scenario analysis
**Target Use Case:** MIS & Data Science teams need forecasts for weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly planning cycles to inform company-wide decision-making.
**Note:** This analysis uses a synthetic dataset of 100,000 customers generated with the Ghana Telecom Data Generator, calibrated to Ghana market statistics (NCA, MTN reports, Census data) to demonstrate forecasting methodology.
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## Key Findings
### Current State (100,000 Subscriber Base)
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| **Active Customers** | 75,350 |
| **Annual Churn Rate** | 24.6% |
| **Average ARPU** | GH₵348.31/month |
| **Current Monthly Revenue** | GH₵26.2M |
| **Annual Revenue at Risk** | GH₵103.0M |
### 12-Month Revenue Projections
Three scenarios modeled based on different churn outcomes:
| Scenario | Annual Churn | 12-Month Revenue | vs Baseline |
|----------|--------------|------------------|-------------|
| **Baseline** | 24.6% (current) | GH₵277.5M | - |
| **Optimistic** | 19.6% (-5pp) | GH₵285.5M | **+GH₵7.9M (+2.9%)** |
| **Pessimistic** | 27.6% (+3pp) | GH₵272.7M | **-GH₵4.8M (-1.7%)** |
### Financial Impact Analysis
**Optimistic Scenario (5pp churn reduction):**
- Additional revenue: **GH₵7.9M over 12 months**
- Customers saved from churning: **3,767**
- Revenue growth: **2.9%** with zero new acquisition
**Pessimistic Scenario (3pp churn increase):**
- Revenue …