game-ale/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# 🇪🇹 Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System > "A comprehensive forecasting system tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation (2011–2027) using time-series analysis and event-impact modeling." --- ## 📊 Overview Ethiopia is undergoing a rapid digital financial transformation. While mobile money registration has surged (Telebirr >54M, M-Pesa >10M), Global Findex demand-side data shows a complex picture of account ownership growth. This project builds a predictive system for the **Consortium of Stakeholders** to understand the drivers behind these trends and project inclusion outcomes for **2025–2027**. ### 🎯 Key Objectives 1. **Enrich** legacy datasets with leading infrastructure and enabler metrics (Smartphones, 4G, Digital ID). 2. **Analyze** the "Ownership Paradox" and the P2P-to-ATM crossover. 3. **Model** the lagging impacts of policy shifts (FX Liberalization, Open Banking) and product launches. 4. **Forecast** Access and Usage indicators with high/medium/low scenarios. --- ## 🏗 System Architecture ```mermaid graph TD A[Raw Data: Findex, Operator Reports, NBE] --> B[Data Enrichment Pipeline] B --> C[Unified Data Schema] C --> D[Exploratory Data Analysis] D --> E[Event Impact Modeling] E --> F[Forecasting Engine] F --> G[Interactive Streamlit Dashboard] subgraph "Unified Schema" C1[Observations] C2[Events] C3[Impact Links] C4[Targets] end ``` --- ## 📂 Project Structure ```text ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Enriched unified data (CSV) │ └── processed/ # Feature-engineered & Forecast data ├── notebooks/ │ ├── EDA.ipynb # Interactive deep-dive into inclusion patterns │ ├── impact_modeling.ipynb # Validation of event impacts │ └── forecasting.ipynb # Scenario visualization ├── src/ │ ├── init_data.py # Excel-to-Unified-CSV conversion │ ├── enrich_data.py # Pipeline for adding new proxy observations │ ├── impact_modeling.py # Logic for qu …