GebSenait/EthioPulse-Forecaster

An executive-grade forecasting system for Ethiopia’s digital financial transformation. Leveraging Interrupted Time Series and causal modeling to predict Findex 'Access' and 'Usage' metrics through 2027, quantifying the impact of Telebirr, M-Pesa, and NBE policy shifts. # EthioPulse-Forecaster **Financial Inclusion Forecasting System for Ethiopia** Analytical system designed to forecast Ethiopia's digital financial transformation trajectory, aligned with the World Bank Global Findex framework. This system supports decision-making for the National Bank of Ethiopia, mobile money operators, and development finance institutions. ## Table of Contents - Project Overview - Repository Structure - Key Features - Installation - Usage - Task 1: Data Exploration & Enrichment - Task 2: Exploratory Data Analysis - Task 1: Detailed Documentation - Description - Implementation - Files Created - Execution Results - Key Insights - Task 2: Detailed Documentation - Description - Implementation - Files Created - Execution Results - Key Insights - Data Sources - Methodology - Contributing - License - Contact ## Project Overview This repository implements a comprehensive forecasting system focusing on two core pillars of financial inclusion: - **Access**: Account Ownership Rate - **Usage**: Digital Payment Adoption Rate The system analyzes historical trends (2011-2024), identifies structural constraints and leading indicators, and prepares the foundation for time-series forecasting (2025-2027). ## Repository Structure ``` EthioPulse-Forecaster/ ├── .github/workflows/ # CI/CD workflows ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Original datasets │ └── processed/ # Enriched and cleaned data ├── notebooks/ # Analysis notebooks ├── src/ # Python modules ├── dashboard/ # Interactive dashboard ├── models/ # Trained forecasting models ├── reports/ # Analysis reports and insights └── tests/ # Unit tests ``` ## Key Features - **Unified Schema Dataset**: Works with `ethiopia_fi_unified_data.xlsx` containing observations, events, impact links, and targets - **Event-Driven Analysis**: Pillar-agnostic events with causal logic through impact_link records - **Data Enri …