habeneyasu/ethiopia-financial-inclusion-forecast

Forecasting Ethiopia’s financial inclusion progress using time series and event impact modeling. Analyzes access and digital payment usage trends, incorporates policy and product events, and presents insights via interactive dashboards. # 🇪🇹 Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia > A data-driven forecasting system modeling Ethiopia's financial inclusion trajectory using time series methods and event impact analysis ## 📋 Table of Contents - Project Overview & Impact - Quick Start - Key Features - Interactive Dashboard - Usage & Development - Project Status ## 🎯 Project Overview & Impact ### The Challenge Ethiopia is experiencing a **critical disconnect** between financial service supply and demand. Despite massive mobile money expansion: - **65+ million mobile money accounts** registered since 2021 - **Only 49% of adults** report having a financial account (2024) - **Growth slowed to +3pp** (2021-2024) vs. +11pp (2017-2021) This **73% deceleration** reveals a fundamental gap: registered accounts ≠ active users. Policy makers need evidence-based insights to understand what drives financial inclusion and how to forecast future trends. ### The Solution This project provides a **production-grade forecasting system** that: - **Models event impacts**: Quantifies how policies, product launches, and infrastructure investments affect inclusion - **Generates forecasts**: Projects account ownership and digital payment usage for 2025-2027 with confidence intervals - **Enables scenario planning**: Optimistic, base, and pessimistic scenarios for policy decision-making - **Visualizes insights**: Interactive dashboard for stakeholder exploration ### Real-World Impact Developed for a consortium including: - **National Bank of Ethiopia** (Central bank) - **Development Finance Institutions** - **Mobile Money Operators** (Telebirr, M-Pesa, Safaricom) **Key Questions Answered:** - What factors drive financial inclusion in Ethiopia? - How do events (product launches, policy changes) affect outcomes? - What will financial inclusion look like in 2025-2027? - How can policy interventions be optimized? ## 🚀 Quick Start Get up and running in under 2 minutes: ```bash # 1. Clone and setup git clone ht …