Habtu32/ethiopia-fi-forecast

A structured dataset and analysis framework for mapping impact linkages, indicators, and usage-driven outcomes across sectors using evidence-based data. # Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia — Final Submission This repository contains the **final, complete deliverable** for the **10 Academy – Week 10 Challenge**: **Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia using Time Series and Event-Impact Analysis**. The project applies a **data-driven, evidence-based methodology** to analyze historical trends, quantify the impact of major fintech and policy events, and forecast **Account Ownership and Usage** outcomes for **2025–2027**. --- ## Project Scope and Objective The primary objective of this project is to: * Analyze Ethiopia’s financial inclusion trajectory using structured historical data * Quantify the **impact of key market and policy events** (e.g., Telebirr, M-Pesa launches) * Produce **scenario-based forecasts** (baseline, optimistic, conservative) for future adoption and usage * Provide transparent, reproducible outputs suitable for **policy analysis and decision support** --- ## Contents of This Final Commit This commit represents the **final evaluated submission** and includes all required outputs. ### 📊 Data & Outputs * **Enriched dataset** `data/processed/ethiopia_fi_enriched_data.csv` Final cleaned dataset with manual event annotations and normalized indicators. * **Forecast scenarios (2025–2027)** `reports/analysis_outputs/forecast_2025_2027_scenarios.csv` * **Impact association matrix** `reports/analysis_outputs/impact_association_matrix.csv` * **Validation metrics** `reports/analysis_outputs/prediction_validation_metrics.csv` ### 📄 Documentation * **Impact modeling methodology** `reports/analysis_outputs/impact_methodology.md` * **Key insights & interpretation** `reports/analysis_outputs/insights_financial_inclusion.md` --- ## Key Results and Insights * Generated **Account Ownership and Usage forecasts** for 2025–2027 under three scenarios: * Baseline * Optimistic * Conservative * Estimated **event-level impact magnitudes**, demonstrating how: * Mobile money launches * Regu …