hassanupf24/sudan-conflict-economy-2000-2024

Analysis of political violence and macroeconomic indicators in Sudan (2000–2024) with ML models. # Sudan: Conflict & Socio-Economic Indicators (2000–2024) This repository analyzes the relationship between political violence (events and fatalities) and macroeconomic indicators in Sudan. ## Data - `data/sudan_merged_conflict_economy.csv`: Merged conflict–economy dataset (annual). - `data/sudan_train.csv`: Training set for modeling. - `data/sudan_test.csv`: Time-based test set. ## Notebook - `sudan_conflict_economy.ipynb`: End-to-end workflow - Data loading and cleaning - Feature engineering (per-100k, rolling averages, lags) - Exploratory analysis (time series, correlations, regional patterns) - Modeling (baseline, Random Forest with time-series CV) - Diagnostics and interpretation (feature importance, residuals) ## Reproducibility - Python: 3.x - Core libraries: `pandas`, `numpy`, `scikit-learn`, `matplotlib`, `seaborn`, `plotly` - Random seed: `RANDOM_SEED = 42` ## Next steps - Add SHAP-based explainability - Extend to sub-national (Admin1) modeling - Increase temporal resolution (monthly/quarterly) sudan-conflict-economy-2000-2024/ │ ├─ data/ │ ├─ sudan_merged_conflict_economy.csv │ ├─ sudan_train.csv │ └─ sudan_test.csv │ ├─ notebooks/ │ └─ 01_sudan_conflict_economy.ipynb │ ├─ reports/ │ └─ sudan_conflict_economy_report.md │ ├─ README.md └─ requirements.txt