HermonaDev/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting System ## Project Overview This system tracks and forecasts Ethiopia's progress toward national financial inclusion targets (Digital Ethiopia 2025). Developed for **Selam Analytics**, the system models the impact of policy and infrastructure interventions on **Account Ownership** and **Digital Payment Adoption**. ## Features - **Unified Schema Analysis**: Integration of hard observations with qualitative event impacts. - **Scenario-Based Forecasting**: Generates Optimistic, Base, and Pessimistic trajectories for 2025-2027. - **Impact Modeling**: Quantitative association matrix mapping events (e.g., Telebirr Launch) to inclusion indicators. - **Interactive Dashboard**: Streamlit interface for stakeholders to explore trends and policy scenarios. ## Project Structure - `src/`: Core logic for data ingestion, enrichment, and modeling. - `dashboard/`: Streamlit application files. - `data/raw/`: Starter datasets (Unified Schema). - `data/processed/`: Analysis-ready and enriched datasets. - `reports/figures/`: Visualizations for stakeholders. ## Installation ```bash pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Usage 1. **Data Enrichment**: `python src/enrichment.py` 2. **Impact Modeling**: `python src/impact_modeling.py` 3. **Forecasting**: `python src/forecaster.py` 4. **Launch Dashboard**: `streamlit run dashboard/app.py` ## Engineering Standards - **PEP 8 Compliance**: Enforced via flake8. - **Documentation**: Google-style docstrings and Python Type Hints throughout the codebase.