hgrueso/Conflict_Soc_Pro_Nigeria

Estimating the impact of armed conflict on children's food security in Nigeria and assessing the effectiveness of cash transfers in mitigating this effect. This analysis also examines the relationship between climate and conflict in the country. # Title Conflict, Climate, and Cash: Protecting Children in Nigeria’s Conflict Zones # Abstract This study examines the protective effect of cash transfers on food insecurity among children in conflict zones of Nigeria. Using average annual rainfall as an instrumental variable (IV), we find that heavy rainfall lowers conflict likelihood, while living in conflict areas increases food insecurity between 50 and 70 percentage points. Cash transfers fully mitigate the adverse impact of conflict on moderate food insecurity, though evidence is less clear for severe cases. By focusing on households in areas with below-average soil moisture, we contribute to literature on rainfall-conflict dynamics, offering insights into causal mechanisms: rainfall fluctuations in prior periods seem to affect conflict indirectly via economic channels, while current rainfall may influence conflict directly as a tactical obstacle. Our analysis combines cross-sectional data from household surveys, geo-coded conflict records, and satellite climate information. We discuss policy implications, emphasizing the comparative effectiveness of social protection programmes in Nigeria. # R Code Description The attached code outlines all the necessary steps to conducted the above data analysis. The data comes from the following sources: 1) MICS: mics.unicef.org 2) Conflict Data from Nigeria: ucdp.uu.se 3) Climate Data: Google Earth Engine code.earthengine.google.com # Code Outputs