HRabie/egypt-education-system-dynamics

# 🎓 Egypt Education System Dynamics Model (EESDM) > A multi-sector system dynamics simulation modeling the long-term impact of education expenditure policies on pre-university outcomes in Egypt — built in Stella Architect and calibrated against official CAPMAS national data. --- ## 🧩 The Problem Egypt's pre-university education system faces structural challenges that cannot be fully understood through static or short-term analysis: - Population growth outpacing infrastructure and teacher capacity - Inconsistent public expenditure allocation across education levels - Feedback loops between enrollment rates, dropout, and economic outcomes - Policy decisions made without dynamic long-term impact assessment Traditional econometric models capture correlations but miss the **feedback dynamics** and **time delays** inherent in education systems. This model addresses that gap through a **system dynamics approach**. --- ## 🔬 Methodology The model is built using **System Dynamics** — a simulation methodology designed for complex systems with feedback loops, stocks, flows, and nonlinear relationships over time. ### Modeling Tool > **Stella Architect** — industry-standard system dynamics platform ### Calibration Data > **CAPMAS** (Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics) — Egypt's official national statistics authority ### Model Structure — 4 Interconnected Sectors ``` ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐ │ EESDM v15 │ ├──────────────┬──────────────┬──────────────┬────────────┤ │ M0 │ M1 │ M2 │ M3 ... │ │ Population │ Finance │ Pre-Primary │ (planned) │ │ Dynamics │ & Budget │ Education │ │ └──────────────┴──────────────┴──────────────┴────────────┘ ``` | Sector | Description | |--------|-------------| | **M0 — Population** | Age-cohort population dynamics, birth rates, survival rates, and school-age population project …