I-Sobe/gas-solar-ndc-planning-nigeria

Energy-as-a-Service Financing for Gas-Constrained Power Systems: Optimising Nigeria's NDC 3.0 Investment Pathway.National-Scale Techno-Economic Optimization of Hybrid Gas–Solar Systems Under Reservoir Decline and Energy-as-a-Service (EaaS) Deployment Scenarios — A Stochastic Multi-Objective Modeling Framework # README.md Energy-as-a-Service Financing for Gas-Constrained Power Systems: Optimising Nigeria's NDC 3.0 Investment Pathway. ## 🔍 Project Overview This repository contains the full modeling framework, datasets, scripts, and reproducibility instructions for the MSc thesis: "Energy-as-a-Service Financing for Gas-Constrained Power Systems: Optimising Nigeria's NDC 3.0 Investment Pathway" This repository contains the full modelling framework, datasets, and run scripts for an MSc thesis that builds a deterministic, multi-scenario linear programming model of Nigeria's on-grid utility-scale power sector over the 2025–2045 planning horizon. The model minimises total system NPV cost (comprising real capital/operating expenditure and value-of-lost-load penalties) subject to gas deliverability constraints, NDC 3.0 annual emissions caps (derived via proportional top-down apportionment of the energy-sector abatement target), a public capital budget ceiling covering solar and storage CAPEX, EaaS bankability constraints, and a solar build rate cap. It evaluates whether Energy-as-a-Service private financing can close the investment gap that prevents simultaneous supply adequacy and climate compliance under Nigeria's gas-constrained, capital-constrained baseline. This work supports insights for: * National planners and regulators (MoP/NERC) * Utilities and generation companies * Renewable IPPs * EaaS providers and commercial/industrial customers * International development partners (WB, AfDB, IRENA) ## Modeling Philosophy and Architectural Mapping ### Modeling Objective This repository implements a **decision-oriented techno-economic optimization model** to evaluate Nigeria’s long-term electricity generation mix under **delivered gas-to-power availability constraints**, renewable deployment frictions, financing structures, and policy uncertainty. The model is designed for **national-scale, long-term planning**, focusing on system-level outcomes: - total system cost, - electri …