Idriss-Ihs/drought-morocco

Drought Monitoring and Severity Classification # 🌦️ Drought Monitoring — Morocco (SPI-Based) **A data-driven system for monitoring drought conditions across Moroccan provinces using CHIRPS rainfall data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).** --- ## 🚀 Overview This project builds a full end-to-end drought monitoring workflow — from satellite precipitation data to analytics and visualization. **Key Features** - Automated **CHIRPS** data download (1981–present) - Country subset (Morocco + Western Sahara) - **SPI computation** at 1, 3, 6, and 12-month scales (Gamma distribution fit) - Provincial (ADM2) aggregation of SPI - Yearly drought metrics: frequency, severity, persistence - **Automated HTML report** generation - **Interactive Streamlit dashboard** for exploration --- ## 🧩 Data Sources - 🌍 **CHIRPS v2.0** — Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Station data - 🗺️ **GeoBoundaries (ADM2)** — Official administrative boundaries - 🕒 **Period:** 1981–2025 (monthly) --- ## 🧠 Methodology 1. **Precipitation anomalies → SPI:** - Monthly precipitation aggregated to rolling sums (1–12 months) - Fitted to a **Gamma distribution** via Method of Moments - Zero-inflation correction for dry months - Cumulative probability transformed via Φ⁻¹ to yield SPI 2. **Aggregation:** - Mean SPI computed for each province per month 3. **Metrics:** - Drought/wetness frequency per class (mild, moderate, severe, extreme) - Maximum drought spell duration - National mean SPI trend slope (long-term signal) --- ## 📊 Outputs | Type | Description | Example | | ----------------- | ------------------------------ | ------------------------------ | | `data/processed/` | SPI & provincial drought stats | `provincial_drought_stats.csv` | | `docs/figures/` | Maps, trends, and leaderboards | `map_mean_spi_spi12_2025.png` | | `docs/report/` | Auto-generated HTML summary | `index.html` | | `src/app/app.py` | Streamlit dashboard …