ikraamhazzan1-cyber/somalia-cholera-analysis
Domain:
healthcareRecord type:
dataset
Creator:
ikr
Host:
Spatiotemporal analysis of cholera surveillance data across Somalia 2020-2022
# 🦠Somalia Cholera Surveillance Analysis — 2020–2022
> **Spatiotemporal analysis of cholera transmission patterns across six Federal Member States of Somalia, examining seasonal drivers, regional burden, and case fatality — 2020 to 2022.**
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## đź“‹ Overview
This project presents a retrospective descriptive epidemiological analysis of suspected cholera cases reported across Somalia from January 2020 to December 2022. The analysis investigates:
- **Epidemic curve** with seasonal overlay (Gu & Deyr rains)
- **Regional burden** — incidence rates and CFR by Federal Member State
- **Seasonal transmission patterns** using heatmap analysis
- **Rainfall–incidence correlation** (Pearson r, ANOVA)
- **Year-on-year trends** across all six regions
This work reflects the type of evidence-based epidemiological analysis used by WHO, UNICEF Health Cluster Somalia, and CDC to guide outbreak response in humanitarian settings.
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## 🔑 Key Findings
| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Total Cases (2020–2022) | **65,954** |
| Total Deaths | **1,459** |
| Overall Case Fatality Rate | **2.21%** ⚠️ above WHO 1% threshold |
| Rainfall–Cases Correlation | **r = 0.886** (p<0.001) |
| Peak Season | **Gu Rains** (April–June) |
| Highest Burden Region | **Banadir** (absolute) |
| Highest Incidence Region | **Southwest State** (per 10,000) |
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## đź“Š Figures
| Figure | Description |
|--------|-------------|
| `fig1_epidemic_curve.png` | Monthly cases + CFR with seasonal shading |
| `fig2_regional_burden.png` | Cases, incidence, CFR by region |
| `fig3_seasonality_heatmap.png` | Month Ă— Region case heatmap |
| `fig4_rainfall_correlation.png` | Rainfall vs. cases scatter + seasonal boxplot |
| `fig5_annual_trend.png` | Year-on-year trend by region |
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## 🗂️ Project Structure
```
somalia_cholera_project/
│
├── data/
│ └── somalia_cholera_data.csv # District-level monthly surveillance data
│
├── scripts/
│ └── cholera_analysis.py # Full analysis script …