jschon637/Somalia-Migration-Timing

# Focus on the Forest, Not the Trees: A Changepoint Model of Forced Displacement What causes forced displacement flows, defined as refugee or internally displaced person (IDP) flows, to vary over time within conflict? While forced displacement displays clear relationships with conflict dynamics, little is known about what actually causes forced displacement to vary during a conflict and when that variation is likely to occur. This article explores whether fluctuations in daily violence levels, structural aspects of conflict or both cause variation in forced displacement within conflict. Analysis of daily displacement data and violent events data finds that structural aspects, particularly changes in the conflict’s geographical scope and balance of power, drive increases or decreases in forced displacement. These effects occur due to the portion of the population affected by conflict, security disruptions and fear. There are two main contributions. First, the findings illustrate the complexity of the violence–displacement relationship. Second, this article demonstrates the importance of considering structural aspects of conflict even as data and methodological advancements have allowed scholars to zoom in on the details of conflict.