JUDAH004/FLOOD-RISK-PREDICTION-SYSTEM

This project aims to develop a comprehensive flood risk prediction model for Kenya by integrating multiple geospatial datasets (CHIRPS (rainfall), SRTM (elevation), OpenStreetMap (land use/ Cover)) with historical flood events. # Flood Risk Prediction System for Kenya Author : JUDAH SAMUEL Date: 15th April 2026 ### Executive Summary This project develops a machine learning-based system to predict flood risk across Kenya by integrating multi-source geospatial data (rainfall, elevation, land use) with historical flood events. Using XGBoost and advanced terrain analysis, the system achieves 99.05% accuracy in identifying high-risk zones, enabling evidence-based early warning and resource allocation. The framework identifies 9.6 million people at extreme flood risk across four major geographic hotspots (Coastal, Lake Victoria, Rift Valley, and Western highlands), providing actionable recommendations for disaster risk reduction at both national and county levels. ### Visual Hook **Key Performance Metrics:** | Metric | Performance | |--------|------------| | Model Accuracy | 99.05% | | ROC-AUC Score | 0.9996 | | Recall (Sensitivity) | 98.99% | | Precision | 98.79% | | Population at Risk | 9.6M (28% of Kenya) | | Spatial Resolution | 0.1° (~11 km grid) | | Time Period | 16 years (2010-2026) | *See 07_flood_risk_map_kenya.png for spatial risk distribution across all 47 counties.* --- ## 2. Context & Problem Statement ### Business Goal **Objective:** Develop a predictive system to identify geographic zones most vulnerable to major flooding events, enabling: - **Early Warning Systems:** Alert at-risk populations 1-3 months before peak flood season - **Resource Allocation:** Target flood preparedness and response resources to high-risk zones - **Policy Development:** Inform county-level disaster risk management planning - **Infrastructure Planning:** Guide urban development and dam construction decisions - **Climate Adaptation:** Support Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan initiatives ### The Problem Kenya experiences recurring catastrophic floods affecting millions. Recent examples: - **2018-2019:** 300+ deaths, 570,000 displaced, 1.6M affected - **20 …