kal2127/Forecasting-Financial-Inclusion-in-Ethiopia

Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia 10 Academy – Artificial Intelligence Mastery | Week 10 Challenge 📌 Project Overview Ethiopia is experiencing rapid growth in digital financial services driven by mobile money platforms such as Telebirr and M-Pesa, regulatory reforms, and digital infrastructure expansion. However, despite this growth, overall financial inclusion—especially formal account ownership—has recently stagnated. This project was conducted on behalf of a consortium of stakeholders, including: Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) – to evaluate whether digital finance expansion is translating into real inclusion outcomes and to guide investment priorities. Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) – to understand the gap between registered users and active financial participation. National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) – to assess policy effectiveness, guide regulatory decisions, and track progress toward national financial inclusion targets. The goal is to build a data-driven forecasting system that explains past trends, models policy and market impacts, and forecasts Ethiopia’s financial inclusion trajectory for 2025–2027. 🎯 Core Objectives Build a unified dataset combining financial indicators, national events, and policy targets Analyze historical trends in financial access and usage Model how events (policies, product launches, infrastructure) affect inclusion outcomes Forecast financial inclusion for 2025–2027 under multiple scenarios Present insights through an interactive dashboard for decision-makers 🌍 Financial Inclusion Framework The project follows the World Bank Global Findex definitions: 🔹 Access – Account Ownership Percentage of adults (15+) who: Have an account at a bank or financial institution, or Personally used a mobile money service in the past 12 months 🔹 Usage – Digital Payments Percentage of adults who: Made or received digital payments Used mobile money, cards, or internet-based payments 🗂️ Repository Structure ethi …