KalkidanAsfaw/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Forecasting Financial Inclusion in Ethiopia A forecasting system tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation, built for **Selam Analytics** on behalf of a consortium including development finance institutions, mobile money operators, and the National Bank of Ethiopia. The system forecasts the two core Global Findex dimensions of financial inclusion for 2025–2027: 1. **Access** — Account Ownership Rate (`ACC_OWNERSHIP`) 2. **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate (`USG_DIGITAL_PAYMENT`) ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ │ └── unittests.yml # CI: run pytest on push/PR ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset (unchanged) │ │ ├── ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv │ │ └── reference_codes.csv │ └── processed/ # Enriched, analysis-ready data ├── notebooks/ │ ├── README.md # Notebook index │ ├── 01_data_exploration.ipynb │ ├── 02_eda.ipynb │ ├── 03_event_impact_modeling.ipynb │ └── 04_forecasting.ipynb ├── src/ # Reusable package (imported by notebooks & dashboard) │ ├── __init__.py │ ├── data_loader.py # Load/validate unified-schema data │ ├── schema.py # Unified schema constants & validation │ ├── event_impact.py # Event effect functions & association matrix │ └── forecasting.py # Trend + event-augmented forecast models ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard ├── tests/ # Unit tests for src/ ├── models/ # Saved model artifacts ├── reports/ │ ├── figures/ # Exported charts │ └── data_enrichment_log.md # Task 1 documentation ├── requirements.txt └── README.md ``` ## Setup ```bash python3 -m venv .venv source .venv/bin/activate pip install -r requirements.txt ``` Place the starter dataset files in `data/raw/`: - `ethiopia_fi_unified_data.csv` - `reference_codes.csv` ## Running the Dashboard ```bash s …