kenenit/ethiopia-fi-forecast

# Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecast Forecasting system tracking Ethiopia's digital financial transformation, built for the 10 Academy KAIM Week 11 challenge (Selam Analytics engagement). Forecasts two Global Findex-defined dimensions of financial inclusion for Ethiopia (2025-2027): - **Access** — Account Ownership Rate - **Usage** — Digital Payment Adoption Rate Modeled against a unified event/observation/impact-link dataset covering Ethiopia's mobile money ecosystem (Telebirr, M-Pesa, EthSwitch, Fayda Digital ID) and policy environment (NFIS-II, NBE regulation). ## Project Structure ``` ethiopia-fi-forecast/ ├── .github/workflows/ # CI: unit tests on push/PR ├── data/ │ ├── raw/ # Starter dataset (unified schema) + reference codes │ └── processed/ # Analysis-ready, enriched data ├── notebooks/ # Task 1-4 notebooks, run in order ├── src/ # Reusable data loading / modeling code ├── dashboard/ │ └── app.py # Streamlit dashboard (Task 5) ├── tests/ # pytest unit tests ├── models/ # Saved forecast model artifacts ├── reports/ │ └── figures/ # Exported charts for the final report └── requirements.txt ``` ## Setup ```bash python -m venv venv source venv/bin/activate # Windows: venv\Scripts\activate pip install -r requirements.txt ``` ## Running the Dashboard Run from the repo root (relative paths depend on this): ```bash streamlit run dashboard/app.py ``` Opens at `localhost`. Four pages, navigable from the sidebar: - **Overview** — key metrics, growth-per-wave chart, NFIS-II target progress gauge - **Trends** — interactive multi-indicator time series with event overlay and date-range filter - **Forecasts** — trend-only vs. event-augmented model comparison, event-indicator association matrix, and a "Why this forecast?" event contribution breakdown showing which events are driving a given year's numbe …