KetimTesfaye/ethiopia-fi-forecast

Ethiopia Financial Inclusion Forecasting & Strategic Dashboard Project Overview This repository provides a data-driven approach to forecasting Financial Inclusion (FI) rates in Ethiopia through 2027. The project integrates historical Findex data with event-based modeling, providing a robust dashboard for strategic decision-making by consortium stakeholders. Project Phases - Task 1 & 2: Data Exploration & Analysis: Initial audit of Findex and National Bank of Ethiopia datasets, cleaning, and identification of key inclusion drivers. - Task 3: Event Impact Modeling: Construction of an Association Matrix linking strategic events (e.g., Telebirr, 5G deployment) to financial inclusion indicators. - Task 4: Forecasting & Interpretation: Development of a regression-based forecasting model with multi-scenario (Optimistic/Base/Pessimistic) projections. - Task 5: Dashboard Development: An interactive Streamlit application enabling stakeholders to visualize trends, test forecast scenarios, and track progress toward the 60% national inclusion target. Technology Stack Analysis: Python, Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib/Seaborn. Modeling: Scikit-learn (Polynomial Regression). Visualization: Plotly, Streamlit. Version Control: Git/GitHub.