Keuya/garissa-solar-finance-model
Domain:
environment and energyRecord type:
model
Creator:
Keu
Host:
Lender-grade project finance model for a 10 MW solar PV plant in Kenya: DSCR/LLCR, scenarios, sensitivities, investment memo
# Garissa Solar — 10 MW Project Finance Model (Kenya)
A lender-style project finance model for a 10 MW solar PV plant in Garissa, Kenya.
It links technical assumptions (yield, degradation, availability) to the numbers a
credit committee actually looks at: **equity IRR, DSCR, LLCR, LCOE and payback** —
under base, downside and upside cases.
The original Excel model (`Garissa Solar Model.xlsx`) is kept for reference; the
Python model extends it with a debt layer, tax, degradation and scenario logic.
## Headline results
| Metric | Base | Downside | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|
| Project IRR (post-tax) | 16.3% | 9.4% | 18.0% |
| **Equity IRR** | **29.4%** | 7.6% | 37.4% |
| NPV @ 10% (USD m) | 3.32 | (0.33) | 3.98 |
| Min DSCR | 1.61x | **0.86x** | 1.96x |
| Avg DSCR | 1.88x | 1.15x | 2.25x |
| LLCR | 1.93x | 1.22x | 2.30x |
| Equity payback | 4 yrs | 17 yrs | 3 yrs |
| LCOE (real) | $0.071/kWh | $0.088/kWh | $0.066/kWh |
## What a lender would challenge
1. **The tariff is the whole story.** At $0.12/kWh the project clears every hurdle;
recent Kenyan solar procurement has cleared well below $0.10. At $0.10 with a
CAPEX overrun, **min DSCR falls to 0.86x — the downside case is not bankable at
70% gearing.** Debt would be resized off the downside, not the base case
(roughly 50–55% gearing to hold ≥1.20x through the downside).
2. **Offtaker credit.** Kenya Power payment delays are the real risk behind the
flat USD tariff; a lender would require an escrow/letter-of-credit structure
and would probe deemed-energy and curtailment provisions in the PPA.
3. **Yield basis.** The model runs P50; debt sizing uses P90 (−7% here). The
tornado shows CAPEX and tariff dominate — yield matters less than commercial terms.
4. **FX.** Tariff is USD but land, labour and part of OPEX are KES; the model
escalates OPEX at USD CPI in the base and 4% in the downside as a proxy.
## Assumptions register (base case)
| Block | Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technical | Ca …