Kikuyu-Maize-DSS-Model/AGRO2025_Conference

BIENNIAL CONFERENCE AT UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI FACULTY OF AGRICULTURE – UPPER KABETE CAMPUS. ADVANCING AGRICULTURE: INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY Climate sensitivity of maize agroecosystems in Kikuyu Sub-County (1981–2022) ============================================================================= This repository supports the AGRO 2025 Biennial Conference abstact submission titled: "Climate change impact on maize agroecosystems: Linear climate sensitivities and scenario projections in Kikuyu Sub-County 1981–2022" Author: Jean-Marie Vianney Minani Institution: University of Nairobi, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of LARMAT Contact: jeanmarie.minani2@gmail.com | jeanmarie@students.uonbi.ac.ke ORCID: 0009-0005-7471-5089 Project overview ---------------- This study explores how maize yield in Kikuyu Sub-County responds to climate variability using a data-driven simulation framework. It combines: - FAO-reported national maize yield data (1981–2022) - NASA POWER monthly climate data (T2M, PRECTOTCORR, GWETTOP) - Linear regression models (OLS) to estimate climate sensitivities - Scenario grid analysis to simulate yield under 35 climate futures Analysis & modeling ------------------- - linear_predictions_1981_2022.py: Python script for fitting OLS models and generating climate sensitivity outputs - panel.json: Configuration or metadata for scenario panel setup - grid.json: Scenario grid with projected yields under ΔT and ΔP combinations Visualizations -------------- - projected_yield_heatmap.png: Heatmap of yield response to temperature and precipitation shifts - projected_yield_heatmap_gw.png: Heatmap including GWETTOP (soil wetness) as a third predictor - scenario_grid_table.png: Tabular summary of 35 climate scenarios with yield values - 1_1_plot_observed_vs_predicted.png: 1:1 plot comparing observed vs predicted maize yields - Kikuyu_full_data_1981-2022.png: Visualization of full maize yield and climate dataset - maize_yield_comparison.png: Comparative yield analysis across models or years - maize_panel_gw.gif: Animated panel showing GWETTOP-based yield dynamics - Jean_Marie_Vianney_Minani_SB6-003.pp …