Kilavuka/Project-2030

Will Kenya accomplish "Vision 2030" # Kenya Vision 2030 — Presidential Administration Progress Analysis **Author:** Ingavi Kilavuka --- ## Overview In 2008, Kenya made a promise to itself. By 2030, the country would be unrecognisable — a globally competitive, middle-income nation where the lights stay on, children finish school, corruption is the exception rather than the rule, and poverty is a memory rather than a reality. That promise had a name: Vision 2030. This project asks two questions: 1. **Which presidential administration — Kibaki (2003–2012), Kenyatta (2013–2022), or Ruto (2023–present) — made the most measurable progress toward Kenya's Vision 2030 objectives?** 2. **Where does Kenya stand today, and can Vision 2030 realistically be met by 2030?** This is not a political project. The analysis uses publicly available, internationally verified data and applies statistical methods to measure progress objectively across Kenya's three Vision 2030 pillars: economic, social, and political governance. --- ## Data Sources | Source | Coverage | Indicators | |---|---|---| | World Bank World Development Indicators | 2003–2024 | GDP growth, electricity access, mortality, enrolment, water access, internet access, governance scores, FDI, inflation, and more | | IMF World Economic Outlook | 2003–2024 | Government debt, fiscal balance, revenue, investment, current account | | Transparency International CPI | 2012–2025 | Corruption Perceptions Index score and rank | | UNDP Human Development Index | Sparse (interpolated) | HDI score | | Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance | 2014–2023 | Overall governance score | > **Note on CPI coverage:** Pre-2012 CPI data uses an incompatible methodology (0–10 scale vs 0–100 post-2012). Pre-2012 scores are excluded rather than converted, as Transparency International explicitly advises against cross-scale comparison. > **Note on Mo Ibrahim:** Data covers 2014–2023 only. World Bank WGI governance scores (2003–2024) are used as the primary governance measure; M …