koneboi/malaria-transmission-model

Malaria transmission dynamics (Ross-MacDonald & SEIR-SEI) and control measures for the Sahel, Mali # Malaria Transmission Dynamics (Ross-MacDonald & SEIR-SEI) #### Mathematical modelling of *Plasmodium falciparum* transmission and control in Mali, West Africa This repository provides self-contained, synthetic-compartmental models (no external downloading of data) of malaria transmission. It implements the classic **Ross-MacDonald** malaria model alongside a **human SEIR / mosquito SEI** dynamic vector-borne framework with seasonal (Sahel wet/dry) forcing, and explores the impact of vector-control and chemoprevention interventions. --- ## Concepts - **Ross-MacDonald model** — the foundational susceptible/infectious model of malaria transmission coupling human and mosquito populations. It formalises how the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) drives parasite spread. - **Vector (mosquito) vs human compartments** — mosquitoes acquire and transmit the parasite but never recover (no immune/removal from infection), while humans pass through susceptible → exposed → infectious → removed (immune) dynamics. - **R0 (basic reproduction number)** — the average number of secondary human infections generated by a single infected human in a fully susceptible population. For vector-borne disease it depends on mosquito biting, survival, latency, and vector:human ratio. - **EIR (entomological inoculation rate)** — the number of infectious bites per person per unit time; a key link between entomology and epidemiology. - **Vectorial capacity** — the daily rate at which future inoculations arise from a currently infective human, capturing mosquito abundance, biting, and survival. - **ITN/IRS control** — insecticide-treated bed nets (reduce biting / increase mosquito mortality) and indoor residual spraying (increase mosquito mortality) both reduce transmission and lower the effective reproduction number Rc below the elimination threshold. - **Seasonal transmission** — in the Sahel the intense, short rainy season drives a strong seasonal pulse of transmission; dry-season transmissi …